The dominant factor driving Indian gas prices in March 2026 is the Middle East conflict-induced disruption of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz which caused global LNG prices to spike to around $25/MMBtu and forced the Indian government to invoke the Essential Commodities Act and prioritize gas allocation to essential sectors constraining supply to industrial users and sustaining elevated domestic gas prices near USD 6.81/MMBtu.

CURRENT STATE

As of late March 2026 MCX Natural Gas futures in India trade around - per unit reflecting a recent decline from highs but still elevated due to supply constraints. Domestic gas prices are administratively fixed near USD 6.75-6.81/MMBtu significantly above the global spot price of about $2.92/MMBtu indicating a decoupling caused by government price controls and supply prioritization. LNG imports are expected to rise 10% in 2026 amid expanding city gas networks but shipment delays and stranded cargoes at the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure availability and pricing.

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